Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Detroit Tigers at San Francisco Giants

All Detroit Tigers predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 4:06 PM · Final: 3-1

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Result Detroit Tigers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Detroit TigersSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM -130 +105
BetRivers -129 +112
DraftKings -123 +114
ESPN BET -130 +110
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -122 +112
Hard Rock Bet -125 +115
Caesars -128 +118

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Detroit TigersSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.3% 45.7%
Best book price incl. vig 55.0% 45.9%
Kalshi contract price 54.5% 45.5%
Polymarket contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Markets average 54.0% 46.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record