Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks

All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 4:10 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 56.3%
Books consensus 56.3%
Result Arizona Diamondbacks won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
BetMGM -145 +118
BetRivers -139 +123
DraftKings -129 +120
ESPN BET -140 +120
Fanatics -140 +115
FanDuel -130 +122
Hard Rock Bet -135 +125
Caesars -135 +125

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.3% 43.7%
Best book price incl. vig 56.3% 44.4%
Kalshi contract price 56.5% 43.5%
Polymarket contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Markets average 56.0% 44.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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