Los Angeles Dodgers at Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB · Sunday, August 9, 2026 · 4:10 PM
The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 56.4%
Books consensus 56.4%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -142 | +118 |
| ESPN BET | -140 | +120 |
| Fanatics | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -146 | +124 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -135 | +125 |
| Caesars | -135 | +125 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 57.4% | 44.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 55.5% | 44.5% |
| Markets average | 56.0% | 44.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
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