Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 9:38 PM · Final: 4-1

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result Texas Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -115 -105
BetRivers -109 -105
DraftKings -106 -101
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -108 +100
Hard Rock Bet -110 +100
Caesars -110 +100

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rangers −1.5
priced 38.7% to cover · 8 books
Texas Rangers covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 50.5% over · 8 books
opened 8.5
Under 7.5 (5 scored)
Spread by book RangersAngels
BetMGM −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
BetRivers −1.5 +150 +1.5 -186
DraftKings −1.5 +148 +1.5 -179
ESPN BET −1.5 +145 +1.5 -175
Fanatics −1.5 +145 +1.5 -180
FanDuel −1.5 +152 +1.5 -184
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +160 +1.5 -170
Caesars −1.5 +143 +1.5 -170
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 -110 7.5 -110
BetRivers 7.5 -109 7.5 -110
DraftKings 7.5 -110 7.5 -110
ESPN BET 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
Fanatics 7.5 -110 7.5 -110
FanDuel 7.5 -115 7.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 -110 7.5 +100
Caesars 7.5 -115 7.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.1% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 51.5% 50.0%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%
Polymarket contract price 50.5% 49.5%
Markets average 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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