Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 9:38 PM · Final: 4-1

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result Texas Rangers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -115 -105
BetRivers -109 -105
DraftKings -106 -101
ESPN BET -115 -105
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -108 +100
Hard Rock Bet -110 +100
Caesars -110 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.1% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 51.5% 50.0%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%
Polymarket contract price 50.5% 49.5%
Markets average 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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