Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 10:10 PM · Final: 5-6

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 71.4%
Books consensus 71.4%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +220 -275
BetRivers +245 -286
DraftKings +259 -282
ESPN BET +230 -280
Fanatics +225 -280
FanDuel +240 -270
Hard Rock Bet +250 -260
Caesars +240 -280

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 28.6% 71.4%
Best book price incl. vig 27.9% 72.2%
Kalshi contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Polymarket contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Markets average 28.5% 71.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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