Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres

All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 53.3%
Books consensus 53.3%
Result San Diego Padres won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Milwaukee BrewersSan Diego Padres
BetMGM -125 +105
BetRivers -122 +107
DraftKings -121 +113
ESPN BET -125 +105
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -120 +110
Hard Rock Bet -120 +110
Caesars -123 +113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersSan Diego Padres
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.3% 46.7%
Best book price incl. vig 54.5% 46.9%
Kalshi contract price 53.0% 47.0%
Polymarket contract price 52.5% 47.5%
Markets average 52.8% 47.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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