Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 2-3
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -122 | +107 |
| DraftKings | -121 | +113 |
| ESPN BET | -125 | +105 |
| Fanatics | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -120 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -120 | +110 |
| Caesars | -123 | +113 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Brewers | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -170 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -180 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +143 | +1.5 -174 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -175 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -180 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -170 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +150 | +1.5 -160 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +143 | +1.5 -170 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7 -110 | 7 -110 |
| BetRivers | 7 -108 | 7 -112 |
| DraftKings | 7 -112 | 7 -108 |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 +115 | 7.5 -135 |
| Fanatics | 7 -115 | 7 -105 |
| FanDuel | 7 -114 | 7 -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 +120 | 7.5 -130 |
| Caesars | 7 -105 | 7 -115 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 53.3% | 46.7% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 54.5% | 46.9% |
| Kalshi contract price | 53.0% | 47.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Markets average | 52.8% | 47.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.