Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions

MLB · Monday, August 10, 2026 · 9:40 PM · Final: 0-9

The model's call
Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Model confidence 65.9%
Books consensus 65.9%
Result Arizona Diamondbacks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks
BetMGM +180 -220
BetRivers +195 -235
DraftKings +191 -206
ESPN BET +175 -210
Fanatics +175 -215
FanDuel +186 -205
Hard Rock Bet +190 -200
Caesars +188 -208

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 34.1% 65.9%
Best book price incl. vig 33.9% 66.7%
Kalshi contract price 34.5% 65.5%
Polymarket contract price 34.5% 65.5%
Markets average 34.5% 65.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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