Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 9:41 PM · Final: 3-2

The model's call
Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Model confidence 61.3%
Books consensus 61.3%
Result Colorado Rockies won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +155 -177
DraftKings +153 -165
ESPN BET +150 -175
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +152 -166
Hard Rock Bet +160 -170
Caesars +157 -172

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.7% 61.3%
Best book price incl. vig 38.5% 62.3%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 38.0% 62.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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