Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 4-5

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 71.0%
Books consensus 71.0%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +230 -295
BetRivers +240 -278
DraftKings +250 -272
ESPN BET +230 -280
Fanatics +225 -280
FanDuel +235 -260
Hard Rock Bet +250 -260
Caesars +230 -260

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 29.0% 71.0%
Best book price incl. vig 28.6% 72.2%
Kalshi contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Polymarket contract price 28.5% 71.5%
Markets average 28.5% 71.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record