Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 9:39 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 57.8%
Books consensus 57.8%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -150 +125
BetRivers -148 +130
DraftKings -142 +132
ESPN BET -145 +125
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -144 +134
Hard Rock Bet -145 +135
Caesars -145 +135

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rangers −1.5
priced 46.7% to cover · 8 books
Los Angeles Angels covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 9
priced 49.7% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 9 (5 scored)
Spread by book RangersAngels
BetMGM −1.5 +105 +1.5 -125
BetRivers −1.5 +108 +1.5 -132
DraftKings −1.5 +107 +1.5 -129
ESPN BET −1.5 +105 +1.5 -125
Fanatics −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
FanDuel −1.5 +108 +1.5 -130
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +110 +1.5 -120
Caesars −1.5 +105 +1.5 -125
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 9 -110 9 -110
BetRivers 9 -107 9 -113
DraftKings 9 -115 9 -105
ESPN BET 8.5 -130 8.5 +110
Fanatics 9 -105 9 -115
FanDuel 9 -106 9 -114
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -125 8.5 +115
Caesars 9 -110 9 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.8% 42.2%
Best book price incl. vig 58.7% 42.6%
Kalshi contract price 58.5% 41.5%
Polymarket contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Markets average 58.0% 42.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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