Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Tuesday, August 11, 2026 · 9:39 PM · Final: 2-3

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 57.8%
Books consensus 57.8%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -150 +125
BetRivers -148 +130
DraftKings -142 +132
ESPN BET -145 +125
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -144 +134
Hard Rock Bet -145 +135
Caesars -145 +135

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.8% 42.2%
Best book price incl. vig 58.7% 42.6%
Kalshi contract price 58.5% 41.5%
Polymarket contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Markets average 58.0% 42.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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