Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres
All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All San Diego Padres predictions
MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 4:10 PM · Final: 3-4
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -115 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -120 | +112 |
| ESPN BET | -120 | +107 |
| Fanatics | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -116 | +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -115 | +105 |
| Caesars | -118 | +107 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Brewers | Padres |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -170 |
| BetRivers | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -175 |
| DraftKings | −1.5 +135 | +1.5 -163 |
| ESPN BET | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Fanatics | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -170 |
| FanDuel | −1.5 +136 | +1.5 -164 |
| Hard Rock Bet | −1.5 +145 | +1.5 -155 |
| Caesars | −1.5 +140 | +1.5 -165 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 8 -118 | 8 -102 |
| BetRivers | 8 -108 | 8 -112 |
| DraftKings | 8 -113 | 8 -107 |
| ESPN BET | 8.5 +110 | 8.5 -130 |
| Fanatics | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
| FanDuel | 8 -112 | 8 -108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 7.5 -120 | 7.5 +110 |
| Caesars | 8 -110 | 8 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Milwaukee Brewers | San Diego Padres |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 53.5% | 47.2% |
| Kalshi contract price | 52.0% | 48.0% |
| Polymarket contract price | 51.5% | 48.5% |
| Markets average | 51.8% | 48.2% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.