Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 2-4

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 67.0%
Books consensus 67.0%
Result Los Angeles Dodgers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +185 -225
BetRivers +200 -230
DraftKings +201 -217
ESPN BET +180 -215
Fanatics +185 -225
FanDuel +200 -220
Hard Rock Bet +200 -210
Caesars +196 -216

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 33.0% 67.0%
Best book price incl. vig 33.2% 67.7%
Kalshi contract price 32.5% 67.5%
Polymarket contract price 33.5% 66.5%
Markets average 33.0% 67.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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