Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

All San Francisco 49ers predictions · All Los Angeles Rams predictions

NFL · Thursday, September 10, 2026 · 8:37 PM · Final: 27-7

The model's call
Los Angeles Rams to win
Model confidence 64.3%
Books consensus 64.3%
Result San Francisco 49ers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book San Francisco 49ersLos Angeles Rams
BetMGM +175 -210
BetRivers +165 -205
DraftKings +180 -218
ESPN BET +170 -200
Fanatics +165 -200
FanDuel +166 -198
Hard Rock Bet +175 -210
Caesars +169 -205

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rams −3.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
San Francisco 49ers covered +3.5
Total · closing
O/U 47.5
priced 51.1% over · 8 books
opened 48.5
Under 47.5 (34 scored)
Spread by book 49ersRams
BetMGM +3.5 +100 −3.5 -110
BetRivers +3.5 -108 −3.5 -113
DraftKings +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
ESPN BET +4 -110 −4 -110
Fanatics +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
FanDuel +3.5 -108 −3.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
Caesars +3.5 -107 −3.5 -111
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 47.5 -110 47.5 -108
BetRivers 47.5 -113 47.5 -108
DraftKings 47.5 -115 47.5 -105
ESPN BET 47.5 -115 47.5 -105
Fanatics 47.5 -115 47.5 -105
FanDuel 47.5 -115 47.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 47.5 -115 47.5 -105
Caesars 47.5 -115 47.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue San Francisco 49ersLos Angeles Rams
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 35.7% 64.3%
Best book price incl. vig 35.7% 66.4%
Kalshi contract price 35.5% 64.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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