Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

All Baltimore Ravens predictions · All Indianapolis Colts predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 1:05 PM · Final: 41-23

The model's call
Baltimore Ravens to win
Model confidence 59.3%
Books consensus 59.3%
Result Baltimore Ravens won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Baltimore RavensIndianapolis Colts
BetMGM -160 +135
BetRivers -167 +138
DraftKings -162 +136
ESPN BET -155 +135
Fanatics -155 +130
FanDuel -162 +136
Hard Rock Bet -165 +140
Caesars -162 +137

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Ravens −3
priced 49.8% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Ravens −3.5
Baltimore Ravens covered −3
Total · closing
O/U 48
priced 50.1% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 48.5
Over 48 (64 scored)
Spread by book RavensColts
BetMGM −3 -108 +3 -110
BetRivers −3 -110 +3 -110
DraftKings −3 -108 +3 -112
ESPN BET −2.5 -120 +2.5 +100
Fanatics −3 -105 +3 -115
FanDuel −3 -110 +3 -110
Hard Rock Bet −3 -110 +3 -110
Caesars −3 -107 +3 -112
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 48 -110 48 -108
BetRivers 47.5 -113 47.5 -108
DraftKings 48.5 -102 48.5 -118
ESPN BET 48.5 +100 48.5 -120
Fanatics 48 -110 48 -110
FanDuel 48.5 -102 48.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet 48 -110 48 -110
Caesars 48 -113 48 -108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Baltimore RavensIndianapolis Colts
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 59.3% 40.7%
Best book price incl. vig 60.8% 41.7%
Kalshi contract price 59.5% 40.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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