Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

All Tampa Bay Buccaneers predictions · All Cincinnati Bengals predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 1:03 PM · Final: 27-33

The model's call
Cincinnati Bengals to win
Model confidence 64.2%
Books consensus 64.2%
Result Cincinnati Bengals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tampa Bay BuccaneersCincinnati Bengals
BetMGM +160 -190
BetRivers +170 -210
DraftKings +170 -205
ESPN BET +160 -190
Fanatics +165 -200
FanDuel +160 -190
Hard Rock Bet +175 -210
Caesars +170 -205

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Bengals −3.5
priced 50.2% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
Cincinnati Bengals covered −3.5
Total · closing
O/U 50.5
priced 49.8% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 51.5
Over 50.5 (60 scored)
Spread by book BuccaneersBengals
BetMGM +3.5 -105 −3.5 -105
BetRivers +4 -112 −4 -109
DraftKings +3.5 -102 −3.5 -118
ESPN BET +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
Fanatics +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
FanDuel +3.5 -108 −3.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet +4 -110 −4 -110
Caesars +3.5 -108 −3.5 -111
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 50.5 -108 50.5 -110
BetRivers 50.5 -109 50.5 -112
DraftKings 50.5 -108 50.5 -112
ESPN BET 50.5 -105 50.5 -115
Fanatics 50 -110 50 -110
FanDuel 50.5 -110 50.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 50.5 -110 50.5 -110
Caesars 50.5 -109 50.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tampa Bay BuccaneersCincinnati Bengals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 35.8% 64.2%
Best book price incl. vig 36.4% 65.5%
Kalshi contract price 35.9% 64.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record