Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

All New York Jets predictions · All Tennessee Titans predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 1:04 PM · Final: 23-10

The model's call
Tennessee Titans to win
Model confidence 52.0%
Books consensus 52.0%
Result New York Jets won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York JetsTennessee Titans
BetMGM +100 -118
BetRivers -103 -120
DraftKings -102 -118
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics -105 -115
FanDuel +100 -118
Hard Rock Bet +100 -120
Caesars +100 -118

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Titans −1.5
priced 48.9% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened Titans −2.5
New York Jets covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 39.5
priced 49.9% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Under 39.5 (33 scored)
Spread by book JetsTitans
BetMGM +1 -108 −1 -110
BetRivers +1.5 -113 −1.5 -108
DraftKings +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
ESPN BET +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Fanatics +1 -110 −1 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet +1 -110 −1 -110
Caesars +1.5 -113 −1.5 -106
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 39.5 -108 39.5 -110
BetRivers 39 -113 39 -108
DraftKings 39.5 -110 39.5 -110
ESPN BET 39.5 +100 39.5 -120
Fanatics 39.5 -110 39.5 -110
FanDuel 39.5 -110 39.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 39 -110 39 -110
Caesars 39.5 -106 39.5 -114

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York JetsTennessee Titans
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 48.0% 52.0%
Best book price incl. vig 50.0% 53.5%
Kalshi contract price 48.5% 51.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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