Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

All Arizona Cardinals predictions · All Los Angeles Chargers predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 4:25 PM · Final: 26-14

The model's call
Los Angeles Chargers to win
Model confidence 79.8%
Books consensus 79.8%
Result Arizona Cardinals won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Arizona CardinalsLos Angeles Chargers
BetMGM +375 -475
BetRivers +360 -500
DraftKings +350 -455
ESPN BET +380 -550
Fanatics +370 -500
FanDuel +385 -500
Hard Rock Bet +400 -550
Caesars +375 -500

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Chargers −8.5
priced 50.5% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Chargers −10.5
Arizona Cardinals covered +8.5
Total · closing
O/U 47
priced 50.3% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 46.5
Under 47 (40 scored)
Spread by book CardinalsChargers
BetMGM +9 -112 −9 -115
BetRivers +9 -109 −9 -112
DraftKings +8.5 -102 −8.5 -118
ESPN BET +8.5 -110 −8.5 -110
Fanatics +8.5 -110 −8.5 -110
FanDuel +8.5 -105 −8.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet +9.5 -110 −9.5 -110
Caesars +9.5 -112 −9.5 -108
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 47 -112 47 -105
BetRivers 47 -113 47 -108
DraftKings 47.5 -102 47.5 -118
ESPN BET 47.5 +100 47.5 -120
Fanatics 47 -110 47 -110
FanDuel 47.5 -104 47.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet 47 -110 47 -110
Caesars 46.5 -115 46.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Arizona CardinalsLos Angeles Chargers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 20.2% 79.8%
Best book price incl. vig 20.0% 82.0%
Kalshi contract price 18.7% 81.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record