Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

All Green Bay Packers predictions · All Minnesota Vikings predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 4:25 PM · Final: 22-39

The model's call
Minnesota Vikings to win
Model confidence 54.9%
Books consensus 54.9%
Result Minnesota Vikings won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Green Bay PackersMinnesota Vikings
BetMGM +115 -135
BetRivers +104 -127
DraftKings +105 -125
ESPN BET +110 -130
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +114 -134
Hard Rock Bet +115 -135
Caesars +113 -132

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Vikings −1.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 3 books, 5 on another number
Minnesota Vikings covered −1.5
Total · closing
O/U 45.5
priced 50.0% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
Over 45.5 (61 scored)
Spread by book PackersVikings
BetMGM +2 -108 −2 -110
BetRivers +1.5 -108 −1.5 -113
DraftKings +1.5 -105 −1.5 -115
ESPN BET +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
Fanatics +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
FanDuel +1.5 -104 −1.5 -118
Hard Rock Bet +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
Caesars +2 -107 −2 -113
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 45.5 -108 45.5 -110
BetRivers 45.5 -112 45.5 -109
DraftKings 46.5 -102 46.5 -118
ESPN BET 45.5 -110 45.5 -110
Fanatics 45.5 -110 45.5 -110
FanDuel 45.5 -114 45.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 45.5 -110 45.5 -110
Caesars 45.5 -112 45.5 -108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Green Bay PackersMinnesota Vikings
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 45.1% 54.9%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 55.6%
Kalshi contract price 43.9% 56.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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