Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

All Miami Dolphins predictions · All Las Vegas Raiders predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 4:25 PM · Final: 13-27

The model's call
Las Vegas Raiders to win
Model confidence 59.7%
Books consensus 59.7%
Result Las Vegas Raiders won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Miami DolphinsLas Vegas Raiders
BetMGM +138 -165
BetRivers +130 -159
DraftKings +142 -170
ESPN BET +135 -155
Fanatics +135 -165
FanDuel +138 -164
Hard Rock Bet +140 -165
Caesars +139 -164

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Raiders −3
priced 50.2% to cover · 8 books
opened Raiders −3.5
Las Vegas Raiders covered −3
Total · closing
O/U 40.5
priced 49.1% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
Under 40.5 (40 scored)
Spread by book DolphinsRaiders
BetMGM +3 -110 −3 -108
BetRivers +3 -108 −3 -113
DraftKings +3 -110 −3 -110
ESPN BET +3 -105 −3 -115
Fanatics +3 -110 −3 -110
FanDuel +3 -108 −3 -112
Hard Rock Bet +3 -105 −3 -115
Caesars +3 -110 −3 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 40 -118 40 -110
BetRivers 40.5 -107 40.5 -114
DraftKings 40.5 -110 40.5 -110
ESPN BET 40.5 +100 40.5 -120
Fanatics 40 -110 40 -110
FanDuel 40.5 -105 40.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 40 -115 40 -105
Caesars 40.5 -106 40.5 -114

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Miami DolphinsLas Vegas Raiders
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.3% 59.7%
Best book price incl. vig 41.3% 60.8%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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