Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

All Dallas Cowboys predictions · All New York Giants predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 13, 2026 · 8:24 PM · Final: 20-28

The model's call
Dallas Cowboys to win
Model confidence 60.6%
Books consensus 60.6%
Result New York Giants won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Dallas CowboysNew York Giants
BetMGM -175 +145
BetRivers -167 +138
DraftKings -166 +140
ESPN BET -170 +150
Fanatics -175 +145
FanDuel -166 +140
Hard Rock Bet -170 +145
Caesars -170 +143

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Cowboys −3
priced 50.7% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Cowboys −2.5
New York Giants covered +3
Total · closing
O/U 47.5
priced 50.4% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 48.5
Over 47.5 (48 scored)
Spread by book CowboysGiants
BetMGM −3 -108 +3 -102
BetRivers −3 -113 +3 -108
DraftKings −3 -112 +3 -108
ESPN BET −3 -110 +3 -110
Fanatics −3 -115 +3 -105
FanDuel −3 -115 +3 -105
Hard Rock Bet −3.5 -105 +3.5 -115
Caesars −3 -118 +3 -102
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 47.5 -110 47.5 -108
BetRivers 48 -108 48 -113
DraftKings 47.5 -115 47.5 -105
ESPN BET 47.5 -115 47.5 -105
Fanatics 47.5 -110 47.5 -110
FanDuel 47.5 -112 47.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 47.5 -110 47.5 -110
Caesars 47.5 -119 47.5 -101

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Dallas CowboysNew York Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.6% 39.4%
Best book price incl. vig 62.4% 40.0%
Kalshi contract price 60.9% 39.1%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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