Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

All New Orleans Saints predictions · All Baltimore Ravens predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 1:02 PM · Final: 24-17

The model's call
Baltimore Ravens to win
Model confidence 77.3%
Books consensus 77.3%
Result New Orleans Saints won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New Orleans SaintsBaltimore Ravens
BetMGM +320 -400
BetRivers +330 -435
DraftKings +295 -375
ESPN BET +300 -400
Fanatics +325 -425
FanDuel +330 -420
Hard Rock Bet +325 -475
Caesars +320 -400

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Ravens −8.5
priced 49.5% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Ravens −7.5
New Orleans Saints covered +8.5
Total · closing
O/U 45.5
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 46.5
Under 45.5 (41 scored)
Spread by book SaintsRavens
BetMGM +8.5 -105 −8.5 -105
BetRivers +8.5 -109 −8.5 -112
DraftKings +8.5 -115 −8.5 -105
ESPN BET +8 -115 −8 -105
Fanatics +7.5 -105 −7.5 -115
FanDuel +8.5 -120 −8.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet +8 -105 −8 -115
Caesars +8 -109 −8 -109
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 45 -110 45 -108
BetRivers 45 -112 45 -109
DraftKings 45.5 -105 45.5 -115
ESPN BET 45.5 -110 45.5 -110
Fanatics 45 -110 45 -110
FanDuel 45.5 -110 45.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 45.5 -110 45.5 -110
Caesars 45 -110 45 -109

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New Orleans SaintsBaltimore Ravens
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 22.7% 77.3%
Best book price incl. vig 23.3% 78.9%
Kalshi contract price 21.5% 78.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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