Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets

All Green Bay Packers predictions · All New York Jets predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 1:03 PM · Final: 20-17

The model's call
Green Bay Packers to win
Model confidence 60.4%
Books consensus 60.4%
Result Green Bay Packers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Green Bay PackersNew York Jets
BetMGM -175 +140
BetRivers -186 +150
DraftKings -185 +154
ESPN BET -165 +140
Fanatics -170 +140
FanDuel -168 +142
Hard Rock Bet -180 +150
Caesars -170 +142

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Packers −3
priced 51.4% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened Packers −5.5
Push
Total · closing
O/U 44.5
priced 49.2% over · 3 books, 5 on another number
opened 42.5
Under 44.5 (37 scored)
Spread by book PackersJets
BetMGM −3 -115 +3 -102
BetRivers −3.5 -105 +3.5 -117
DraftKings −3.5 -108 +3.5 -112
ESPN BET −3 -115 +3 -105
Fanatics −3 -115 +3 -105
FanDuel −3.5 +100 +3.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet −3 -120 +3 -105
Caesars −3 -118 +3 -103
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 44 -120 44 -110
BetRivers 44.5 -107 44.5 -114
DraftKings 44.5 -110 44.5 -110
ESPN BET 43.5 -115 43.5 -105
Fanatics 44 -110 44 -110
FanDuel 44.5 -105 44.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 44 -110 44 -110
Caesars 43.5 -115 43.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Green Bay PackersNew York Jets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 60.4% 39.6%
Best book price incl. vig 62.3% 39.4%
Kalshi contract price 60.5% 39.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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