Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans

All Philadelphia Eagles predictions · All Tennessee Titans predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 1:02 PM · Final: 24-20

The model's call
Philadelphia Eagles to win
Model confidence 74.0%
Books consensus 74.0%
Result Philadelphia Eagles won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Philadelphia EaglesTennessee Titans
BetMGM -325 +270
BetRivers -345 +265
DraftKings -325 +260
ESPN BET -380 +290
Fanatics -340 +265
FanDuel -360 +290
Hard Rock Bet -375 +300
Caesars -335 +270

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Eagles −7
priced 50.1% to cover · 8 books
Tennessee Titans covered +7
Total · closing
O/U 39.5
priced 50.2% over · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened 42.5
Over 39.5 (44 scored)
Spread by book EaglesTitans
BetMGM −7 -110 +7 -108
BetRivers −7 -115 +7 -106
DraftKings −7 -115 +7 -105
ESPN BET −7 -105 +7 -115
Fanatics −7 -110 +7 -110
FanDuel −7 -110 +7 -110
Hard Rock Bet −7 -115 +7 -110
Caesars −7 -109 +7 -109
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 39.5 -110 39.5 -108
BetRivers 39 -113 39 -108
DraftKings 39.5 -112 39.5 -108
ESPN BET 39.5 -115 39.5 -105
Fanatics 39.5 -110 39.5 -110
FanDuel 39.5 -112 39.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 39.5 -110 39.5 -110
Caesars 39.5 -109 39.5 -112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Philadelphia EaglesTennessee Titans
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 74.0% 26.0%
Best book price incl. vig 76.5% 25.0%
Kalshi contract price 75.2% 24.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record