Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

All Seattle Seahawks predictions · All Arizona Cardinals predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 4:25 PM · Final: 31-7

The model's call
Seattle Seahawks to win
Model confidence 65.2%
Books consensus 65.2%
Result Seattle Seahawks won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Seattle SeahawksArizona Cardinals
BetMGM -220 +185
BetRivers -215 +175
DraftKings -218 +180
ESPN BET -210 +175
Fanatics -215 +175
FanDuel -210 +176
Hard Rock Bet -210 +180
Caesars -209 +174

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Seahawks −3.5
priced 51.2% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Seahawks −10
Seattle Seahawks covered −3.5
Total · closing
O/U 41
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 44.5
Under 41 (38 scored)
Spread by book SeahawksCardinals
BetMGM −4 -105 +4 -105
BetRivers −4 -112 +4 -109
DraftKings −3.5 -120 +3.5 +100
ESPN BET −3.5 -110 +3.5 -110
Fanatics −3.5 -115 +3.5 -105
FanDuel −4.5 -102 +4.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet −4 -115 +4 -105
Caesars −3.5 -117 +3.5 -104
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 41 -110 41 -108
BetRivers 41 -110 41 -110
DraftKings 40.5 -115 40.5 -105
ESPN BET 41.5 -105 41.5 -115
Fanatics 41 -110 41 -110
FanDuel 41.5 -102 41.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet 41 -110 41 -110
Caesars 40.5 -118 40.5 -103

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Seattle SeahawksArizona Cardinals
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 65.2% 34.8%
Best book price incl. vig 67.6% 35.1%
Kalshi contract price 65.5% 34.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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