Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs
All Indianapolis Colts predictions · All Kansas City Chiefs predictions
NFL · Sunday, September 20, 2026 · 8:22 PM · Final: 30-33
Closing moneyline by book
The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.
| Book | Indianapolis Colts | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +240 | -295 |
| BetRivers | +240 | -315 |
| DraftKings | +215 | -265 |
| ESPN BET | +230 | -280 |
| Fanatics | +230 | -285 |
| FanDuel | +235 | -290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +240 | -300 |
| Caesars | +220 | -275 |
Spread & total
Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.
| Spread by book | Colts | Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| BetRivers | +6 -107 | −6 -114 |
| DraftKings | +6 -112 | −6 -108 |
| ESPN BET | +6 -105 | −6 -115 |
| Fanatics | +6 -107 | −6 -112 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -120 | −6.5 -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -115 | −6.5 -105 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -107 | −5.5 -113 |
| Total by book | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -108 |
| BetRivers | 46 -112 | 46 -109 |
| DraftKings | 46.5 -102 | 46.5 -118 |
| ESPN BET | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 |
| Fanatics | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 |
| FanDuel | 45.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 46 -110 | 46 -110 |
| Caesars | 45.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.
| Venue | Indianapolis Colts | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 28.8% | 71.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 29.4% | 72.6% |
| Kalshi contract price | 28.5% | 71.5% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.