Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams

All New York Giants predictions · All Los Angeles Rams predictions

NFL · Monday, September 21, 2026 · 8:16 PM · Final: 6-28

The model's call
Los Angeles Rams to win
Model confidence 71.8%
Books consensus 71.8%
Result Los Angeles Rams won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book New York GiantsLos Angeles Rams
BetMGM +240 -295
BetRivers +240 -315
DraftKings +240 -298
ESPN BET +240 -290
Fanatics +240 -300
FanDuel +245 -300
Hard Rock Bet +240 -300
Caesars +240 -290

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rams −6.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Rams −8.5
Los Angeles Rams covered −6.5
Total · closing
O/U 47.5
priced 48.9% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 48.5
Under 47.5 (34 scored)
Spread by book GiantsRams
BetMGM +6.5 -105 −6.5 -105
BetRivers +7 -115 −7 -106
DraftKings +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
ESPN BET +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
Fanatics +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
FanDuel +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet +7 -115 −7 -105
Caesars +6.5 -102 −6.5 -118
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 47 -110 47 -108
BetRivers 47 -114 47 -107
DraftKings 47.5 -110 47.5 -110
ESPN BET 47.5 -105 47.5 -115
Fanatics 47.5 -105 47.5 -115
FanDuel 47.5 -105 47.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 47 -115 47 -105
Caesars 47.5 -108 47.5 -113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue New York GiantsLos Angeles Rams
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 28.2% 71.8%
Best book price incl. vig 29.0% 74.4%
Kalshi contract price 28.5% 71.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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