Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns

All Carolina Panthers predictions · All Cleveland Browns predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 1:02 PM · Final: 18-21

The model's call
Carolina Panthers to win
Model confidence 54.3%
Books consensus 54.3%
Result Cleveland Browns won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Carolina PanthersCleveland Browns
BetMGM -130 +110
BetRivers -136 +110
DraftKings -135 +114
ESPN BET -135 +115
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -130 +110
Hard Rock Bet -130 +110
Caesars -130 +110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Panthers −2.5
priced 49.1% to cover · 5 books, 3 on another number
Cleveland Browns covered +2.5
Total · closing
O/U 41.5
priced 50.9% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 39.5
Under 41.5 (39 scored)
Spread by book PanthersBrowns
BetMGM −2.5 -108 +2.5 -110
BetRivers −2 -108 +2 -113
DraftKings −2.5 -108 +2.5 -112
ESPN BET −2.5 -105 +2.5 -115
Fanatics −2 -110 +2 -110
FanDuel −2.5 -105 +2.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet −2 -110 +2 -110
Caesars −2.5 -106 +2.5 -114
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 41.5 -108 41.5 -110
BetRivers 42.5 -108 42.5 -113
DraftKings 41.5 -115 41.5 -105
ESPN BET 42.5 -105 42.5 -115
Fanatics 41.5 -110 41.5 -110
FanDuel 41.5 -114 41.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet 42 -110 42 -110
Caesars 41.5 -117 41.5 -104

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Carolina PanthersCleveland Browns
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.3% 45.7%
Best book price incl. vig 56.5% 46.5%
Kalshi contract price 54.5% 45.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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