Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants

All Tennessee Titans predictions · All New York Giants predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 1:02 PM · Final: 7-12

The model's call
New York Giants to win
Model confidence 55.8%
Books consensus 55.8%
Result New York Giants won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Tennessee TitansNew York Giants
BetMGM +120 -140
BetRivers +117 -141
DraftKings +110 -130
ESPN BET +115 -135
Fanatics +115 -140
FanDuel +120 -142
Hard Rock Bet +115 -130
Caesars +118 -139

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Giants −2.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Giants −6
New York Giants covered −2.5
Total · closing
O/U 37.5
priced 50.4% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 43
Under 37.5 (19 scored)
Spread by book TitansGiants
BetMGM +2.5 -105 −2.5 -112
BetRivers +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
DraftKings +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
ESPN BET +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
Fanatics +2.5 -110 −2.5 -110
FanDuel +2.5 -105 −2.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet +2 -110 −2 -110
Caesars +2.5 -107 −2.5 -113
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 37.5 -108 37.5 -110
BetRivers 37.5 -113 37.5 -108
DraftKings 37.5 -112 37.5 -108
ESPN BET 38.5 -110 38.5 -110
Fanatics 38 -110 38 -110
FanDuel 37.5 -112 37.5 -108
Hard Rock Bet 38 -110 38 -110
Caesars 37.5 -112 37.5 -108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Tennessee TitansNew York Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.2% 55.8%
Best book price incl. vig 45.5% 56.5%
Kalshi contract price 44.5% 55.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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