Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

All Arizona Cardinals predictions · All San Francisco 49ers predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 4:05 PM · Final: 30-36

The model's call
San Francisco 49ers to win
Model confidence 76.0%
Books consensus 76.0%
Result San Francisco 49ers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ers
BetMGM +300 -375
BetRivers +275 -385
DraftKings +320 -410
ESPN BET +290 -380
Fanatics +290 -375
FanDuel +315 -400
Hard Rock Bet +325 -400
Caesars +300 -380

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
49ers −7.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
opened 49ers −8.5
Arizona Cardinals covered +7.5
Total · closing
O/U 48.5
priced 50.4% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 47.5
Over 48.5 (66 scored)
Spread by book Cardinals49ers
BetMGM +7.5 -105 −7.5 -105
BetRivers +7.5 -117 −7.5 -112
DraftKings +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
ESPN BET +7.5 -115 −7.5 -105
Fanatics +7.5 -110 −7.5 -110
FanDuel +7.5 -114 −7.5 -106
Hard Rock Bet +7.5 -105 −7.5 -115
Caesars +7.5 -109 −7.5 -109
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 49 -108 49 -110
BetRivers 48 -114 48 -114
DraftKings 48.5 -112 48.5 -108
ESPN BET 48.5 -120 48.5 +100
Fanatics 49 -110 49 -110
FanDuel 48.5 -110 48.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 48.5 -110 48.5 -110
Caesars 48.5 -112 48.5 -108

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 24.0% 76.0%
Best book price incl. vig 23.5% 78.9%
Kalshi contract price 22.5% 77.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

Trade the event contracts
The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
Referral links — we may earn a reward if you sign up. 18+. Event contracts involve risk; this is not investment advice.

Back to today's board · The full record