Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys

All Baltimore Ravens predictions · All Dallas Cowboys predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 4:25 PM · Final: 34-31

The model's call
Baltimore Ravens to win
Model confidence 61.3%
Books consensus 61.3%
Result Baltimore Ravens won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Baltimore RavensDallas Cowboys
BetMGM -175 +145
BetRivers -167 +138
DraftKings -170 +142
ESPN BET -185 +155
Fanatics -180 +150
FanDuel -176 +148
Hard Rock Bet -185 +150
Caesars -176 +149

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Ravens −3.5
priced 48.8% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Ravens −2.5
Dallas Cowboys covered +3.5
Total · closing
O/U 53.5
priced 50.0% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 51.5
Over 53.5 (65 scored)
Spread by book RavensCowboys
BetMGM −3.5 +100 +3.5 -110
BetRivers −3.5 -103 +3.5 -120
DraftKings −3 -120 +3 +100
ESPN BET −3.5 -105 +3.5 -115
Fanatics −3.5 +100 +3.5 -120
FanDuel −3.5 -102 +3.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet −3.5 -105 +3.5 -115
Caesars −3.5 -106 +3.5 -114
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 54 -108 54 -110
BetRivers 53 -109 53 -112
DraftKings 53.5 -120 53.5 +100
ESPN BET 53.5 -110 53.5 -110
Fanatics 53.5 -110 53.5 -110
FanDuel 53.5 -110 53.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 53.5 -110 53.5 -110
Caesars 53.5 -114 53.5 -106

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Baltimore RavensDallas Cowboys
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 61.3% 38.7%
Best book price incl. vig 62.5% 39.2%
Kalshi contract price 62.5% 37.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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