Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

All Los Angeles Rams predictions · All Denver Broncos predictions

NFL · Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 8:22 PM · Final: 26-30

The model's call
Los Angeles Rams to win
Model confidence 51.1%
Books consensus 51.1%
Result Denver Broncos won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Los Angeles RamsDenver Broncos
BetMGM -115 -102
BetRivers -114 -107
DraftKings -112 -108
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -115 -105
FanDuel -116 -102
Hard Rock Bet -115 -105
Caesars -109 -108

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rams −1.5
priced 47.8% to cover · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened Rams −2.5
Denver Broncos covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 44
priced 50.0% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 45.5
Over 44 (56 scored)
Spread by book RamsBroncos
BetMGM −1 -102 +1 -108
BetRivers −1 -108 +1 -113
DraftKings −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
ESPN BET −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
Fanatics −0.5 -110 +0.5 -110
FanDuel −1.5 -102 +1.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet −1 -110 +1 -110
Caesars −1.5 +100 +1.5 -120
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 44 -110 44 -110
BetRivers 44 -112 44 -109
DraftKings 43.5 -115 43.5 -105
ESPN BET 44.5 +100 44.5 -120
Fanatics 44 -110 44 -110
FanDuel 44.5 -105 44.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 44 -110 44 -110
Caesars 43.5 -117 43.5 -104

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Los Angeles RamsDenver Broncos
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 51.1% 48.9%
Best book price incl. vig 52.2% 50.0%
Kalshi contract price 50.5% 49.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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