Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

All Carolina Panthers predictions · All Green Bay Packers predictions

NFL · Thursday, October 29, 2026 · 8:15 PM · Final: 19-27

The model's call
Green Bay Packers to win
Model confidence 63.4%
Books consensus 63.4%
Result Green Bay Packers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Carolina PanthersGreen Bay Packers
BetMGM +160 -200
BetRivers +160 -195
DraftKings +160 -192
ESPN BET +165 -195
Fanatics +160 -195
FanDuel +166 -198
Hard Rock Bet +170 -200
Novig +178 -186
Caesars +159 -190

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Packers −3.5
priced 50.0% to cover · 8 books
opened Packers −3
Green Bay Packers covered −3.5
Total · closing
O/U 47
priced 50.2% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 47.5
Under 47 (46 scored)
Spread by book PanthersPackers
BetMGM +3.5 -105 −3.5 -105
BetRivers +3.5 -109 −3.5 -112
DraftKings +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
ESPN BET +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
Fanatics +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
FanDuel +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 -115 −3.5 -105
Caesars +3.5 -108 −3.5 -110
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 47 -112 47 -105
BetRivers 47 -112 47 -109
DraftKings 47.5 -105 47.5 -115
ESPN BET 46.5 -120 46.5 +100
Fanatics 47 -110 47 -110
FanDuel 47.5 -102 47.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet 47 -110 47 -110
Caesars 47.5 -104 47.5 -117

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Carolina PanthersGreen Bay Packers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.6% 63.4%
Best book price incl. vig 36.0% 65.0%
Kalshi contract price 36.1% 63.9%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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