Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys

All Arizona Cardinals predictions · All Dallas Cowboys predictions

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM

The model's call
Dallas Cowboys to win
Model confidence 74.5%
Books consensus 74.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Arizona CardinalsDallas Cowboys
BetMGM +260 -325
BetRivers +295 -400
DraftKings +250 -310
ESPN BET +280 -360
Fanatics +250 -320
FanDuel +280 -350
Hard Rock Bet +275 -350
Novig +292 -300
Caesars +250 -320

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Cowboys −7
priced 50.0% to cover · 7 books, 1 on another number
opened Cowboys −6.5
Total
O/U 54.5
priced 50.1% over · 8 books
opened 51.5
Spread by book CardinalsCowboys
BetMGM +7 -110 −7 -108
BetRivers +7 -110 −7 -113
DraftKings +7 -112 −7 -108
ESPN BET +7 -110 −7 -110
Fanatics +7 -110 −7 -110
FanDuel +7 -110 −7 -110
Hard Rock Bet +7 -110 −7 -110
Caesars +6.5 -112 −6.5 -108
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 54.5 -110 54.5 -108
BetRivers 54.5 -109 54.5 -114
DraftKings 54.5 -112 54.5 -108
ESPN BET 54.5 -110 54.5 -110
Fanatics 54.5 -110 54.5 -110
FanDuel 54.5 -110 54.5 -110
Hard Rock Bet 54.5 -115 54.5 -105
Caesars 54.5 -112 54.5 -109

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Arizona CardinalsDallas Cowboys
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 25.5% 74.5%
Best book price incl. vig 25.3% 75.0%
Kalshi contract price 25.5% 74.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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