Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers

All Cleveland Browns predictions · All Pittsburgh Steelers predictions

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM

The model's call
Pittsburgh Steelers to win
Model confidence 63.2%
Books consensus 63.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Cleveland BrownsPittsburgh Steelers
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +160 -195
DraftKings +160 -192
ESPN BET +165 -195
Fanatics +160 -195
FanDuel +172 -205
Hard Rock Bet +160 -190
Novig +178 -186
Caesars +159 -190

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Steelers −3.5
priced 49.9% to cover · 8 books
opened Steelers −4.5
Total
O/U 39.5
priced 49.1% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
Spread by book BrownsSteelers
BetMGM +3.5 -110 −3.5 -108
BetRivers +3.5 -112 −3.5 -109
DraftKings +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
ESPN BET +3.5 -115 −3.5 -105
Fanatics +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
FanDuel +3.5 -105 −3.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 -110 −3.5 -110
Caesars +3.5 -114 −3.5 -106
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 39.5 -108 39.5 -110
BetRivers 39.5 -112 39.5 -109
DraftKings 39.5 -105 39.5 -115
ESPN BET 39.5 -105 39.5 -115
Fanatics 39 -110 39 -110
FanDuel 39.5 -105 39.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 39 -110 39 -110
Caesars 39.5 -107 39.5 -113

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Cleveland BrownsPittsburgh Steelers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.8% 63.2%
Best book price incl. vig 36.0% 65.0%
Kalshi contract price 35.8% 64.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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