Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions

All Minnesota Vikings predictions · All Detroit Lions predictions

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM

The model's call
Detroit Lions to win
Model confidence 61.6%
Books consensus 61.6%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions
BetMGM +150 -185
BetRivers +140 -175
DraftKings +142 -170
ESPN BET +150 -175
Fanatics +150 -180
FanDuel +146 -174
Hard Rock Bet +150 -180
Novig +163 -170
Caesars +151 -179

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Lions −3.5
priced 47.8% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Lions −3
Total
O/U 45.5
priced 50.2% over · 3 books, 5 on another number
opened 46
Spread by book VikingsLions
BetMGM +3.5 -118 −3.5 -102
BetRivers +3 -106 −3 -115
DraftKings +3 +100 −3 -120
ESPN BET +3.5 -120 −3.5 +100
Fanatics +3.5 -120 −3.5 +100
FanDuel +3.5 -122 −3.5 +100
Hard Rock Bet +3.5 -115 −3.5 -105
Caesars +3.5 -120 −3.5 +100
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 45.5 -110 45.5 -108
BetRivers 45.5 -108 45.5 -113
DraftKings 46.5 +100 46.5 -120
ESPN BET 45.5 -115 45.5 -105
Fanatics 46 -110 46 -110
FanDuel 46.5 -102 46.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet 46 -110 46 -110
Caesars 46 -108 46 -112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Minnesota VikingsDetroit Lions
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 38.4% 61.6%
Best book price incl. vig 38.0% 63.0%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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