Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars

All Indianapolis Colts predictions · All Jacksonville Jaguars predictions

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM

The model's call
Jacksonville Jaguars to win
Model confidence 80.0%
Books consensus 80.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars
BetMGM +380 -500
BetRivers +375 -500
DraftKings +380 -500
ESPN BET +360 -500
Fanatics +370 -500
FanDuel +410 -550
Hard Rock Bet +375 -525
Novig +413 -426
Caesars +360 -480

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Jaguars −10
priced 49.9% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Jaguars −7.5
Total
O/U 46.5
priced 50.0% over · 8 books
Spread by book ColtsJaguars
BetMGM +10 -110 −10 -108
BetRivers +9.5 -107 −9.5 -114
DraftKings +10 -112 −10 -108
ESPN BET +10 -110 −10 -110
Fanatics +10 -110 −10 -110
FanDuel +10.5 -120 −10.5 -102
Hard Rock Bet +10 -110 −10 -110
Caesars +10 -110 −10 -109
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 46.5 -110 46.5 -108
BetRivers 46.5 -109 46.5 -112
DraftKings 46.5 -110 46.5 -110
ESPN BET 46.5 -105 46.5 -115
Fanatics 46.5 -110 46.5 -110
FanDuel 46.5 -105 46.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 46.5 -115 46.5 -105
Caesars 46.5 -110 46.5 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Indianapolis ColtsJacksonville Jaguars
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 20.0% 80.0%
Best book price incl. vig 19.5% 81.0%
Kalshi contract price 19.5% 80.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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