Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Las Vegas Raiders at New York Jets

All Las Vegas Raiders predictions · All New York Jets predictions

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 1:00 PM

The model's call
New York Jets to win
Model confidence 52.3%
Books consensus 52.3%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Las Vegas RaidersNew York Jets
BetMGM +100 -120
BetRivers +100 -121
DraftKings +102 -122
ESPN BET +100 -120
Fanatics +105 -125
FanDuel +100 -118
Hard Rock Bet +100 -120
Novig +115 -117
Caesars +103 -121

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Jets −1.5
priced 49.4% to cover · 8 books
Total
O/U 45.5
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 44.5
Spread by book RaidersJets
BetMGM +1.5 -110 −1.5 -108
BetRivers +1.5 -112 −1.5 -109
DraftKings +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
ESPN BET +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Fanatics +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
FanDuel +1.5 -115 −1.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -110 −1.5 -110
Caesars +1.5 -114 −1.5 -106
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 45.5 -110 45.5 -108
BetRivers 45.5 -110 45.5 -110
DraftKings 45.5 -110 45.5 -110
ESPN BET 46.5 -105 46.5 -115
Fanatics 46 -110 46 -110
FanDuel 45.5 -115 45.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 46 -110 46 -110
Caesars 45.5 -108 45.5 -112

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Las Vegas RaidersNew York Jets
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 47.7% 52.3%
Best book price incl. vig 46.5% 53.9%
Kalshi contract price 47.0% 53.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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