Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Los Angeles Chargers at Los Angeles Rams

All Los Angeles Chargers predictions · All Los Angeles Rams predictions

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 4:05 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Rams to win
Model confidence 72.1%
Books consensus 72.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Los Angeles ChargersLos Angeles Rams
BetMGM +240 -295
BetRivers +245 -315
DraftKings +220 -270
ESPN BET +260 -320
Fanatics +240 -300
FanDuel +250 -310
Hard Rock Bet +250 -300
Novig +257 -264
Caesars +235 -290

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Rams −6.5
priced 51.1% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened Rams −7.5
Total
O/U 45
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 45.5
Spread by book ChargersRams
BetMGM +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
BetRivers +7 -118 −7 -104
DraftKings +6.5 -102 −6.5 -118
ESPN BET +7 -115 −7 -105
Fanatics +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
FanDuel +6.5 -102 −6.5 -120
Hard Rock Bet +6.5 -105 −6.5 -115
Caesars +6.5 -104 −6.5 -115
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 45 -108 45 -110
BetRivers 45 -112 45 -109
DraftKings 45.5 -105 45.5 -115
ESPN BET 45.5 -110 45.5 -110
Fanatics 45 -110 45 -110
FanDuel 45.5 -105 45.5 -115
Hard Rock Bet 45 -110 45 -110
Caesars 45 -110 45 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Los Angeles ChargersLos Angeles Rams
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 27.9% 72.1%
Best book price incl. vig 27.8% 72.5%
Kalshi contract price 26.5% 73.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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