Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos

All Kansas City Chiefs predictions · All Denver Broncos predictions

NFL · Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 4:25 PM

The model's call
Kansas City Chiefs to win
Model confidence 52.2%
Books consensus 52.2%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos
BetMGM -120 +100
BetRivers -124 +102
DraftKings -118 -102
ESPN BET -120 +100
Fanatics -120 +100
FanDuel -118 +100
Hard Rock Bet -120 +100
Novig -111 +108
Caesars -122 +103

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread
Chiefs −1.5
priced 49.7% to cover · 6 books, 2 on another number
Total
O/U 40.5
priced 50.3% over · 8 books
opened 42.5
Spread by book ChiefsBroncos
BetMGM −1.5 -108 +1.5 -110
BetRivers −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
DraftKings −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
ESPN BET −1.5 -105 +1.5 -115
Fanatics −1 -110 +1 -110
FanDuel −1.5 -108 +1.5 -112
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 -110 +1.5 -110
Caesars −1 -109 +1 -109
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 40.5 -110 40.5 -108
BetRivers 40.5 -112 40.5 -109
DraftKings 40.5 -112 40.5 -108
ESPN BET 40.5 -105 40.5 -115
Fanatics 40.5 -110 40.5 -110
FanDuel 40.5 -115 40.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet 40.5 -110 40.5 -110
Caesars 40.5 -115 40.5 -105

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Kansas City ChiefsDenver Broncos
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.2% 47.8%
Best book price incl. vig 52.6% 48.1%
Kalshi contract price 52.5% 47.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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