Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 10:11 PM

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 54.9%
Books consensus 54.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -127 +107
DraftKings -136 +113
ESPN BET -135 +115
FanDuel -126 +108
Caesars -130 +120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.9% 45.1%
Best book price incl. vig 55.8% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 56.1% 43.9%
Polymarket contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Markets average 55.8% 44.2%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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