Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Wednesday, August 12, 2026 · 10:11 PM · Final: 2-5

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 54.9%
Books consensus 54.9%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -135 +110
BetRivers -132 +116
DraftKings -127 +119
ESPN BET -130 +110
Fanatics -130 +110
FanDuel -128 +118
Hard Rock Bet -130 +120
Caesars -121 +110

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rangers −1.5
priced 42.7% to cover · 8 books
Los Angeles Angels covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8.5
priced 51.5% over · 6 books, 2 on another number
opened 9
Under 8.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book RangersAngels
BetMGM −1.5 +125 +1.5 -155
BetRivers −1.5 +120 +1.5 -148
DraftKings −1.5 +124 +1.5 -149
ESPN BET −1.5 +125 +1.5 -150
Fanatics −1.5 +120 +1.5 -145
FanDuel −1.5 +120 +1.5 -144
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +130 +1.5 -140
Caesars −1.5 +130 +1.5 -155
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8.5 -118 8.5 -102
BetRivers 8.5 -118 8.5 -103
DraftKings 8.5 -116 8.5 -104
ESPN BET 8.5 -115 8.5 -105
Fanatics 8.5 -115 8.5 -105
FanDuel 9 -102 9 -120
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 -115 8.5 +105
Caesars 9 +100 9 -120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.9% 45.1%
Best book price incl. vig 54.8% 45.5%
Kalshi contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Polymarket contract price 55.5% 44.5%
Markets average 55.5% 44.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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