Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 10:10 PM · Final: 5-4

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 56.8%
Books consensus 56.8%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +118 -145
BetRivers +125 -143
DraftKings +127 -136
ESPN BET +126 -142
Fanatics +120 -145
FanDuel +128 -138
Hard Rock Bet +130 -140
Caesars +125 -135

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Dodgers −1.5
priced 39.1% to cover · 8 books
Milwaukee Brewers covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 8
priced 50.0% over · 5 books, 3 on another number
opened 8.5
Over 8 (9 scored)
Spread by book BrewersDodgers
BetMGM +1.5 -175 −1.5 +145
BetRivers +1.5 -182 −1.5 +150
DraftKings +1.5 -175 −1.5 +144
ESPN BET +1.5 -180 −1.5 +150
Fanatics +1.5 -170 −1.5 +140
FanDuel +1.5 -176 −1.5 +146
Hard Rock Bet +1.5 -160 −1.5 +150
Caesars +1.5 -170 −1.5 +143
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 8 -110 8 -110
BetRivers 8 -112 8 -107
DraftKings 8 -110 8 -110
ESPN BET 8.5 +110 8.5 -130
Fanatics 8 -110 8 -110
FanDuel 8.5 +102 8.5 -124
Hard Rock Bet 8.5 +110 8.5 -120
Caesars 8 -110 8 -110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 43.2% 56.8%
Best book price incl. vig 43.5% 57.4%
Kalshi contract price 42.5% 57.5%
Polymarket contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Markets average 43.0% 57.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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