Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

All Texas Rangers predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 10:08 PM · Final: 0-7

The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 57.7%
Books consensus 57.7%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the de-vigged consensus of the books and Novig, a no-cut exchange, until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Kalshi and Polymarket below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -150 +125
BetRivers -143 +125
DraftKings -146 +136
ESPN BET -148 +131
Fanatics -150 +125
FanDuel -142 +132
Hard Rock Bet -145 +135
Caesars -143 +133

Spread & total

Not part of the model's call. Collected from every book and graded in public so the prices can be checked — how spreads and totals have graded so far. The percent is what the price itself implies, vig removed.

Spread · closing
Rangers −1.5
priced 44.6% to cover · 8 books
Los Angeles Angels covered +1.5
Total · closing
O/U 7.5
priced 47.2% over · 4 books, 4 on another number
opened 8
Under 7.5 (7 scored)
Spread by book RangersAngels
BetMGM −1.5 +115 +1.5 -140
BetRivers −1.5 +118 +1.5 -143
DraftKings −1.5 +114 +1.5 -137
ESPN BET −1.5 +115 +1.5 -135
Fanatics −1.5 +115 +1.5 -140
FanDuel −1.5 +114 +1.5 -137
Hard Rock Bet −1.5 +120 +1.5 -130
Caesars −1.5 +115 +1.5 -135
Total by bookOverUnder
BetMGM 7.5 +100 7.5 -120
BetRivers 7 -118 7 +100
DraftKings 7 -123 7 +102
ESPN BET 7.5 +105 7.5 -125
Fanatics 7 -120 7 +100
FanDuel 7.5 +100 7.5 -122
Hard Rock Bet 7.5 +110 7.5 -120
Caesars 7 -120 7 +100

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Texas RangersLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 57.7% 42.3%
Best book price incl. vig 58.7% 42.4%
Kalshi contract price 57.5% 42.5%
Polymarket contract price 58.5% 41.5%
Markets average 58.0% 42.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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