Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
MLB · Thursday, August 13, 2026 · 10:08 PM
The model's call
Texas Rangers to win
Model confidence 57.8%
Books consensus 57.8%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | -150 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -148 | +130 |
| DraftKings | -141 | +131 |
| ESPN BET | -148 | +131 |
| Fanatics | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -146 | +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -145 | +135 |
| Caesars | -143 | +133 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 58.5% | 42.4% |
| Kalshi contract price | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| Polymarket contract price | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Markets average | 58.0% | 42.0% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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