Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB · Friday, August 14, 2026 · 10:11 PM

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 62.1%
Books consensus 62.1%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +145 -180
BetRivers +155 -186
DraftKings +152 -184
ESPN BET +155 -185
FanDuel +152 -180
Hard Rock Bet +160 -170

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 37.9% 62.1%
Best book price incl. vig 38.5% 63.0%
Kalshi contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Polymarket contract price 37.5% 62.5%
Markets average 37.5% 62.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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