Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves
MLB · Friday, August 14, 2026 · 7:16 PM
The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 65.0%
Books consensus 65.0%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged
consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet.
Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.
Line shop — latest moneyline by book
Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.
| Book | Arizona Diamondbacks | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | +170 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +180 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +180 | -194 |
| ESPN BET | +170 | -200 |
| Fanatics | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +182 | -198 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +185 | -195 |
| Caesars | +183 | -203 |
Prediction markets vs the books
Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.
| Venue | Arizona Diamondbacks | Atlanta Braves |
|---|---|---|
| Books consensus fair, de-vigged | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Best book price incl. vig | 35.1% | 66.0% |
| Kalshi contract price | 35.1% | 64.8% |
| Polymarket contract price | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| Markets average | 35.8% | 64.1% |
Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.
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