Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves

All Arizona Diamondbacks predictions · All Atlanta Braves predictions

MLB · Friday, August 14, 2026 · 7:16 PM · Final: 2-0

The model's call
Atlanta Braves to win
Model confidence 64.5%
Books consensus 64.5%
Result Arizona Diamondbacks won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Arizona DiamondbacksAtlanta Braves
BetMGM +165 -200
BetRivers +175 -200
DraftKings +177 -191
ESPN BET +170 -193
Fanatics +165 -200
FanDuel +180 -194
Hard Rock Bet +180 -190
Caesars +175 -195

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Arizona DiamondbacksAtlanta Braves
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 35.5% 64.5%
Best book price incl. vig 35.7% 65.5%
Kalshi contract price 34.8% 65.1%
Polymarket contract price 35.5% 64.5%
Markets average 35.1% 64.8%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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