Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 15, 2026 · 4:06 PM · Final: 1-7

The model's call
San Francisco Giants to win
Model confidence 61.0%
Books consensus 61.0%
Result San Francisco Giants won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM +145 -175
BetRivers +155 -180
DraftKings +155 -167
ESPN BET +149 -169
Fanatics +145 -175
FanDuel +150 -164
Hard Rock Bet +155 -165
Caesars +153 -163

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 39.0% 61.0%
Best book price incl. vig 39.2% 62.0%
Kalshi contract price 39.5% 60.5%
Polymarket contract price 38.5% 61.5%
Markets average 39.0% 61.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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