Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers

All Chicago White Sox predictions · All Detroit Tigers predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 15, 2026 · 1:10 PM · Final: 4-3

The model's call
Detroit Tigers to win
Model confidence 57.4%
Books consensus 57.4%
Result Chicago White Sox won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers
BetMGM +125 -150
BetRivers +125 -141
DraftKings +130 -140
ESPN BET +131 -148
Fanatics +125 -150
FanDuel +126 -138
Hard Rock Bet +130 -140
Caesars +135 -145

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 42.6% 57.4%
Best book price incl. vig 42.6% 58.0%
Kalshi contract price 43.5% 56.5%
Polymarket contract price 44.5% 55.5%
Markets average 44.0% 56.0%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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