Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 15, 2026 · 7:15 PM · Final: 4-1

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 54.0%
Books consensus 54.0%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM -130 +105
BetRivers -130 +115
DraftKings -122 +114
ESPN BET -125 +111
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -122 +112
Hard Rock Bet -125 +115
Caesars -125 +115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 54.0% 46.0%
Best book price incl. vig 55.0% 46.5%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Polymarket contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Markets average 53.5% 46.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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