Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

MLB · Saturday, August 15, 2026 · 7:15 PM

The model's call
Milwaukee Brewers to win
Model confidence 56.5%
Books consensus 56.5%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
DraftKings -142 +118
ESPN BET -145 +125
Fanatics -145 +120
FanDuel -142 +120

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 56.5% 43.5%
Best book price incl. vig 58.7% 44.4%
Kalshi contract price 54.9% 45.1%
Polymarket contract price 54.5% 45.5%
Markets average 54.7% 45.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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The prediction-market prices on our game pages are tradeable markets.
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