Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Saturday, August 15, 2026 · 9:40 PM · Final: 0-1

The model's call
Los Angeles Angels to win
Model confidence 59.8%
Books consensus 59.8%
Result Los Angeles Angels won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM +135 -165
BetRivers +140 -159
DraftKings +142 -153
ESPN BET +143 -162
Fanatics +140 -170
FanDuel +144 -156
Hard Rock Bet +145 -155
Caesars +147 -157

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 40.2% 59.8%
Best book price incl. vig 40.5% 60.5%
Kalshi contract price 41.1% 58.9%
Polymarket contract price 41.5% 58.5%
Markets average 41.3% 58.7%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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