Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants

All Colorado Rockies predictions · All San Francisco Giants predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 4:05 PM · Final: 13-7

The model's call
San Francisco Giants to win
Model confidence 55.2%
Books consensus 55.2%
Result Colorado Rockies won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants
BetMGM +115 -140
BetRivers +120 -137
DraftKings +118 -126
ESPN BET +116 -131
Fanatics +110 -130
FanDuel +120 -130
Hard Rock Bet +110 -120
Caesars +120 -130

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 44.8% 55.2%
Best book price incl. vig 45.5% 54.5%
Kalshi contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Polymarket contract price 45.5% 54.5%
Markets average 45.5% 54.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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