Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

All Kansas City Royals predictions · All Los Angeles Angels predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 4:08 PM · Final: 3-0

The model's call
Kansas City Royals to win
Model confidence 53.3%
Books consensus 53.3%
Result Kansas City Royals won model ✓
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Angels
BetMGM -130 +105
BetRivers -117 +104
DraftKings -117 +109
ESPN BET -125 +111
Fanatics -125 +105
FanDuel -116 +108
Hard Rock Bet -120 +110
Caesars -121 +110

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 53.3% 46.7%
Best book price incl. vig 53.7% 47.4%
Kalshi contract price 52.0% 48.0%
Polymarket contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Markets average 52.8% 47.3%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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