Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

MLB · Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 4:07 PM

The model's call
Kansas City Royals to win
Model confidence 52.9%
Books consensus 52.9%
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Line shop — latest moneyline by book

Best available price on each side is highlighted. Prices move; always confirm at the book.

Book Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Angels
DraftKings -124 +103
FanDuel -120 +102
Caesars -125 +115

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side right now.

Venue Kansas City RoyalsLos Angeles Angels
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 52.9% 47.1%
Best book price incl. vig 54.5% 46.5%
Kalshi contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Polymarket contract price 53.5% 46.5%
Markets average 53.5% 46.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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