Sports Edge Model — every game called, every call graded, in public

Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers

All Milwaukee Brewers predictions · All Los Angeles Dodgers predictions

MLB · Sunday, August 16, 2026 · 4:10 PM · Final: 6-2

The model's call
Los Angeles Dodgers to win
Model confidence 63.5%
Books consensus 63.5%
Result Milwaukee Brewers won model ✗
Identical on purpose: the model applies no adjustment to the books’ de-vigged consensus until a candidate signal proves itself in shadow audit — none has yet. Prediction markets below are a comparison, not an input.

Closing moneyline by book

The last price each book posted before first pitch — the prices this call could actually have been bet at. Best on each side is highlighted. In-game odds are deliberately excluded: once the game starts, the price tracks the score, not the matchup.

Book Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
BetMGM +155 -190
BetRivers +155 -180
DraftKings +169 -182
ESPN BET +170 -193
Fanatics +165 -200
FanDuel +170 -184
Hard Rock Bet +170 -180
Caesars +172 -192

Prediction markets vs the books

Every venue sells the same thing — a dollar if that side wins — at a different price. Implied cost per venue below; amber = the cheapest way to buy that side at the close.

Venue Milwaukee BrewersLos Angeles Dodgers
Books consensus fair, de-vigged 36.5% 63.5%
Best book price incl. vig 36.8% 64.3%
Kalshi contract price 36.5% 63.5%
Polymarket contract price 36.5% 63.5%
Markets average 36.5% 63.5%

Contract prices exclude exchange trading fees (Kalshi ~1–2¢ midrange), which narrow small gaps. A venue meaningfully below the books consensus is either a bargain or an early opinion — the graded record decides which.

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